Sunday, May 6, 2012

A Third-Party Spoiler?


              Last Saturday former GOP presidential candidate Gary Johnson accepted the presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party which would earn him a spot on the November ballot in all 50 states. Recently, the Libertarian party has been the most influential third party in America as it links social liberals and economic conservatives into an alliance against government activism in all spheres of life. Johnson is running on a platform that includes slashing government spending to balance the federal budget by 2013, as well as ending the war on drugs, beginning with the legalization of marijuana. But most importantly, Johnson hopes to appeal to voters fed up with the U.S. traditional two-party system. 
             But chances are Libertarians would not succeed in opening up our closed political system in the 2012 presidential elections. Third parties have traditionally fared poorly in our two-party system long dominated by Republicans and Democrats. In fact, the Libertarians’ best presidential showing came in 1980 when nominee Ed Clark won 1.1 % of the national vote. In the 2008 election, the party nominee Bob Barr won .4 % of the national vote. 
            Nonetheless, third parties in the United States are created for a variety of reasons, and they do have had an impact on elections outcomes. According to the Public Policy Polling (PPP) Johnson would siphon off 6% of the popular vote in 2012. Of course, polls this far out from the election should not be taken very serious since most voters haven’t really tuned in and won’t for months to come. However, what we must consider is that beyond a handful of legitimate Johnson fans, this 6% consists of voters who have paid scant attention to date, and have uneasy feelings about both Obama and Romney. So when presented with a third generic option they’ll voice their dissent, and even though this would not change the results of the 2012 elections, it would certainly have a significant impact on public policy. If Johnson gets more than 15% support in national polls, he would qualify for participating in the presidential debates in the fall and would be able to give the Libertarian message a lot of exposure.  This could force our next President to devote greater attention to Johnson's issues. But for now he is just a stand-in for American voter’s dissatisfactions with their options, one that could disappear once voters actually begin to tune in.

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