As the recently created “Iran War Clock” holds steady at ten
minutes before midnight, predicting a 48% chance of war between the United
States or Israel and Iran in the next year, President Barack Obama used his
speech at the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC,
conference to inform attendees, and the world, of his administration’s approach
to the threats posed by Iranian nuclear development programs.
President Obama’s administration has been keen to avoid
another war in the Middle East, and in a recent statement, the President noted
that the country has recognized Iran’s right to “peaceful nuclear power” and is
willing to take “confidence-building steps” to build a relationship with the
country.
Although the administration clearly hopes that a diplomatic
approach to rising tensions between Iran and Israel, presidential hopeful Mitt Romney (R) told AIPAC attendees that he disagrees with the current
administration’s non-interventionist approach. He stated that the warnings the
Obama administration have given Israel about the potential consequences of
military action against Iran are in contrast with President Obama’s promise
that “Israel must always have the ability to defend itself, by itself,
against any threat.” Romney assured the group that, as president, he
would “be ready to engage in diplomacy but [he] will be just as ready to engage
[the country’s] military might.”
Though politicians are concerned about the possibility of
war in Iran before the end of the year, American citizens name more domestic concerns like the recovery of the economy as more important than foreign issues
by a landslide; a worrisome sign to those who believe conflict in Iran is not
inevitable. As interest groups like AIPAC pressure President Obama to strengthen
the country’s support of Israel in the event of a nuclear conflict, it is
likely that he will feel forced to become more aggressive towards Iran to
satiate some of his re-election campaign’s biggest donors.
While it is undoubtedly true that the United States needs to
come to an agreement on how to treat Iran-Israel relations, it is clear that,
in the pluralist tradition, it will be interest groups, not
individual Americans, who influence this major decision.
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