Wednesday, November 7, 2012

2012 election: Did Obama win a mandate?

Last night Barack Obama won the presidential race, far exceeding expectations for many political pundits who believed the election would be "razor tight". Not only did President Obama win 50.4% of the popular vote to Romney's 48.1% and secure 303 electoral votes, but Democrats also took control of the Senate, reaching 54 seats (plus expected Democratic voting ally, Independent candidate, Angus King of Maine). Additionally, Obama took the swing states Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.

In reflecting on the election many people will try to answer why Obama won. Could it have been his timely, efficient, and bipartisan handling of Hurricane Sandy? The fact that the economy is finally starting to pick up? Highlights from his Presidency like the bailout of the auto industry and the capture of Osama Bin Laden? The fact that Romney is less at ease in front of an audience or flat out not likable? Or is it that there is a potential shift happening in American politics?

In the 1980s Ronald Reagan's presidency transformed the political make up of the nation. His conservative values and top down approach to fiscal policy eroded ties to the democratic party, particularly among white southerners and moderates. With Obama's post George W. Bush presidency and the Tea Party movement among Republicans, we may be seeing something similar occurring with the rise of Democratic identification thirty years later.

After George W. Bush's presidency, an economy on the brink of a depression and the effects of a disastrous war in Iraq left the nation primed for a change. That change came in the form of President Obama. In 2008 he won with 365 electoral votes, 53% of the popular vote, and took swing states Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. It was as close to a mandate as it gets.

This election, however, wasn't expected to pan out quite the same. Romney highlighted the sluggish economic growth under Obama every chance he got, and many constituents felt things actually hadn't gotten any better. The fact that Obama secured 303 electoral votes and managed to carry many of the swing states he had in '08 (all but North Carolina and Indiana) under these conditions indicates that his win is not merely a reflection of a well run campaign or recovering economy, it indicates that something is changing among the American electorate.

This election was marked by extreme conservatism on the part of Republicans, from the tone of the Republican primaries, to the ideologies of Romney and Ryan themselves, to statements made by Republicans running for Senate backed by Tea Party support. Romney was caught saying that 47% of Americans believe they are victims and are dependent on the government for health care, food, and housing, and that his job is not to worry about those people. Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin from Missouri stated that victims of legitimate rape rarely get pregnant because their bodies have ways of preventing it. Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock from Indiana said that rape that results in pregnancy is something God intended to happen. Republican Vice Presidential candidate, Paul Ryan, attacked Medicare and Social Security as collectivist welfare systems. These are the types of statements and ideologies that Americans were exposed to from Republicans during this past election. This exposure has likely pushed many moderate Americans (many of whom are minorities, women, beneficiaries of social programs, etc.) away from the Republican party and channeled their support towards a mandate for Obama.

Update* since the creation of this post, results from Florida have been finalized making the electoral vote 332 for Obama and 206 for Romney.

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